Surfing the Waves

SURFING THE WAVES

BY

MURALI MURTHY

No denying Second Wave has hit India harder than the First. If the Peak in the First wave reached 1 Lakh cases a day, second one hit a max of 4 Lakhs cases a day.

The panic, being horrified, intimidated quotient just rose that many folds amongst the people in the second wave. Quite Natural, as we all saw our loved ones being infected.

However, certain exaggerations and images in the Media made people more Paranoid, however the statistics suggests Mortality rate lesser than the First Wave. As against the general belief that Younger population are affected more, the data suggests only a marginal increase in number of Under 40 population being infected.

Is Lockdown answer to flatten the Curve? Epidemiologists believe it only helps in nipping it in the Bud. Which India did in Apr 2020, went for a Nation wide strict Lock Down when cases were merely 500.

By Sep 2020, We all were back to normal life.

Yet, the Second Wave started to Peak in Mar 2021, and the Lockdown was imposed again.

Now as we enter June 2021, We see some good signs of consistent downward trend, which is by the way around the Peak numbers of First Wave.

So, how long does this Lock and Unlock game go? Is it really the answer?

At the end of each Lockdown, the Cases surely go down. Epidemiologists believe rise and fall of Waves indicates natural cycle of Virus strength. The Seropositivity rate of people exposed to each dominant Variant determines the rise and fall of each wave, all other actions we believe we take are just for our satisfaction and experimental.

Covid has infected around 3 Crore people till date and unfortunate & sad loss of 3.5 Lakhs lives. With some time to recover and complications, 2.8 Crore People have recovered and are healthy by the way.

Statistically speaking Covid is still not the No.1 killer and is still behind Heart Attacks and Strokes which takes around 4,000 lives each day.

Are we saving lives by Locking down? Surely to a certain extent, with factual analysis that it compensates for more than half of deaths due to Road Accidents and other Accidents.

Again, are we saving Lives by Locking Down? What would happen to 140 Crore people during Lockdown? Do they all get Salaries to work from Home?

There are only 10 Crore people in India Who belong to Salaried class (Organized sector), lets assume another 5 Crore people can manage with their Savings and from Rich class; and leave out 40 Crore under 20 age group and 10 Crore over 60 age group population.

What will happen to remaining 75 Crore people? This is formed by daily labours, Employees of unorganized sectors, SME employees, Education Sector, Hospitality, Shops, Restaurants, Farmers and Service Industries, which does not earn, if they do not work or Serve.

Will the "helping hands" feeding them with grains and other basic necessities are good enough for them?

The impact of Covid on non-health issues include:

- 3 Crore people fell to Poor, from Middle class

- 20 Crore Poor fell into BPL category

- 2 Crore lost jobs

- 2 Lakhs SME units shut down

- 600 Cr Gold deposits were auctioned due to Loan defaulters

No Data on number of Shops, Hotels shut and no Data on NPAs due to Home/Personal/Automobile Loan defaulters. Am sure the numbers will leave us wondering if supplying some Food packs once in 3 months is good enough!

Almost all Small Enterprises are either in deep distress or extinct!

Let's try again, is Lockdown answer to curb the spread?

The Epidemiologists believe Lockdown is a good strategy to nip the infection rate in the early stages. Well, we have tried and it didn't work! Epidemiologists believe Herd Immunity is the only way to get out of the Pandemic.

Herd Immunity can be achieved only if majority population are immune to the Virus, and this can be achieved by a combination of more people exposed to the Virus and Vaccination.

While the exposure part is done, the next step is to temporarily make our Immunity system stronger till the Virus stops mutating and eventually can't multiple anymore.

Are we doing enough to Vaccinate all Indians? Well, I can't talk about strategies, actions, and plan, Supplies, because any question raised against inefficiencies and decisions of the Govt, will be construed as Anti-Modi, Anti-India rhetorics, such is the situation.

While the Vaccination program opened well to Vaccinate the vulnerable, it lost track as everyone whom I hear being Vaccinated offlate are through Private Channels, and surely not the susceptible population.

Why would the Corporates and IT companies want to Vaccinate their Employees, who are anyway happy working from home for next 1 year at least? Can't the same Vaccines be used to the ones who need to go out and work to rebuild their Lives (75 Cr) once Lockdown opens up?

We can always pat our own backs and say we have already Vaccinated 20 Crore Indians, while a Rich country like USA has also done around 30 Crore Doses.

The sad part to this analogy is US has only that much population, while India has 140 Crore People, so the plan and pace has to be in sync with our Population. Since 5 months of Vaccination drive in India, we now have only 4.5% fully vaccinated population.

While we hope Govt has clear plans and confident to ramp up by 5 times immediately, more there is a delay in Vaccinating all Indians, there will be 50 Crore more people ready for their 3rd Booster shot!

While we wait to create Herd Immunity, way forward as per Epidemiologists is to inculcate Covid Appropriate Behaviour and allow people to earn and lead a respectable life.

For many, the choice is between being scared of being infected Vs leading a life with empty pockets, uncertain future and family to feed, all this while ensuring a shelter for the family (Rent / Home Loan).

While treading a careful path not undermining the calamity on health and lives Covid has caused, yet urging the impact to be viewed in 360 Degrees and it's non-health issues that hit 50% of the population, and health issues affecting 2% population.

For a moment, let's just see it statistically and solve problem of people affected more. 2 or 50?

It can be argued Economic impact and loss of livelihood is a temporary setback and can recover over time. Well, doesn't the same logic apply to the infected as well?

Those impacted by either or both, will only know the pain of each of the setbacks. While the economic impact is real and strangles life, health impact is more of a Paranoia...ofcourse, both will have casualties and fatal examples.